What led to the latest developments in the Middle East, which is now termed the Arab Spring?

The reason is pure and simple. Like people in any country of the world, who have been exposed to the same kind of government or governance for the past 30 to 35 years would become tired of such system and this has been the case with the Arab countries where we saw no change in the main political figures and power structure. There were a limited section of people that were the beneficiary of such a system, and this kind of rule is no longer sustainable. As a result, people all of a sudden erupted and said they had enough and wanted change. There were demands from the people for a government, where human rights are preserved and where nobody has a claim on power single handedly.

Summing up the Arab economies, the UNDP, WEF and other global bodies have complained about too much interference from governments, a lack of competitiveness and entrepreneurs. Do you think this will change?

It could improve with the democratic governments, provided the right of private property and protection of entrepreneurship are guaranteed by the law. A democratic system would necessarily have a legal system that is well developed and judicious. The economic change would depend on top government officials and people close to the state officials letting the market and entrepreneurs benefit from the new system of governance. Transforming the government into a more elaborate democratic status would certainly make possible that economy functions better, but it will not happen in the short term. In the near future, we’d see a lot of havoc in the process of delivering justice and there will be a lot of pull and push for power among several groups. So far we have seen some changes through transformation of power, but we don’t see democracy in full bloom in the countries that have witnessed the change, particularly in Egypt and Tunisia.

Do you think the current turmoil would give birth to a new Arab world?

I think a new Arab horizon would depend on the broader education scenario in the rest of the Arab world. The region has not changed significantly in terms of governance. The nourishment and cultivation of democratic values will take some time. However, a greater measure of freedom has come about since the two dictators have been removed. However, we are far away from a situation where freedom and education is encouraged. We are distant from achieving democracy and we won’t see cultural advancement and true values of democracy in the region before 2050, at best.

What lessons should countries in the Arab region draw from this revolution?

Drawing lessons and changes will be a very gradual process. If you take Syria and what is going on in that country, there has been absolutely no change in the brutality with which the demonstrators have been treated, and there have been more deaths everyday. Now take the case of Jordan, where there have been some adjustments. When the discontent regarding the regime was expressed, the tribal leaders came together and put forward a scenario of free election saying that the Palestinians would end up ruling the country if free elections were conducted because they are in a majority. The leaders asked Jordanians if this is what they wanted. With this reasoning they were successful in calming the demonstrators.

The one country in the region where the efforts of improvement are badly needed is Saudi Arabia, but the change there has to be by nature and by religion, and it will be very slow. We now know that Saudi women have been admitted to the consultative councils and young men and women are being admitted to high profile universities. There has been some pressure on the king of Saudi Arabia to bring about change but let’s remember that he is very old. We should not forget that the country, which has been very conservative in nature, could only advance very slowly with the right kind of leadership. Now the country where this experiment and liberalization and strengthening of the democratic institutions can be tested is Iraq. It has greater oil wealth than Saudi Arabia, has a high number of educated people and it has suffered years and years of degradation of infrastructure and governing system. This is Iraq’s chance to prove its mettle. In the 1960s, Iraq had the highest number of educated people in the whole Arab world, including Lebanon where they are quite proud about their education levels. Iraq could be the star of the Arab world by
2020 onwards.

How do you view the potential inclusion of Morocco and Jordan into the GCC?

It is actually a counter Arab spring move. But all of this will not materialize. During the Iraq-Kuwait war, Morocco sent soldiers who fought against Iraq.
Although Jordan wanted to participate, it could due to a large number of Palestinians, who live in Jordan and sympathized with Saddam Hussein. Now Jordan and Morocco are considered the countries that would send their soldiers to Arabian Gulf nations, if a need arises. However, I’ll reiterate that this whole idea of inclusion is meaningless. Besides a large distance between Morocco and the Gulf, the countries in North Africa are very different from the oil-rich GCC nations.

The Arab Spring is likely to bring opportunities to this region. What would be the challenges?

On of the obvious risks is the chaos in settling the legal issues. When some ministers are accused of embezzlement and it is not proved in court and as a result they are not put in jail, there would be question marks on the reliability of the new system. When accusations are made against some of the ministers or officials of the former regimes, there is a possibility of those charges being the result of personal grudges. So there might be a corruption in dealing with the corruption of the previous regime. A lot needs to be done to attract tourists to Egypt and Tunisia. The situation in Libya has scared away tourists from visiting resort towns in Egypt.

What would be your suggestion to the new governments to improve economies?

First and foremost they should establish security that includes security of individuals and property, freedom of practicing religion. Once you have achieved stable security, there are several drivers of growth including a huge population, especially in Egypt. The economic fundamentals are strong and investments from abroad are trickling in, but there is a dire need to weed out corruption. I think Arab societies will have to go through another winter to reap the fruits of a real
Arab Spring.

What are your views on promises of aid to countries such as Egypt?

I don’t think they are empty promises, because bodies such as IMF and World Bank are involved and countries such
as Germany and America are taking the lead. But one should keep in mind
that help will not be there tomorrow. In the next few weeks, we will see a cash injection into Egyptian economy, but the rest of the aid will take time to materialize. I think time is needed to put a mechanism in place that will draw
maximum benefit from the aid coming from Europe, America and Gulf
Arab nations.

Do you think this wave of change would sway other nations in this region?

It is very difficult to judge the future by present actions. We have seen calls
for reforms and democracy and those voices are not easy to suffocate.

It is not conceivable that these societies would revert back to their previous practices. However, we will have to wait for a time when governments in this region would work with more openness and transparency.

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