The Western and Saudi-backed current majority, labeled “March 14″ (for the date mass protests on the street called for Syria’s withdrawal), won the elections, beating the Hezbollah-led opposition, “March 8″ (for the earlier and smaller protest supporting Syria).   These elections aligned Lebanon to the West instead of opposing it on the trail of Iran and Syria, despite heavy political mobilization by Hezbollah.

But what also depends on these elections is the kind of relationship Lebanon will have with Syria, often dubbed its “big sister.” The enmity between the two countries’ governments has been strong since the assassination of billionaire and former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005, openly blamed by March 14 on Syria, then Lebanon’s power broker for 15 years. Although Syrian troops withdrew from its small neighbor following the murder, Syria remains very influential in Lebanon, not only through its staunch allies, among whom Hezbollah stands strong, but also by way of a series of agreements that were mostly signed during Syria’s reign over Lebanon.

One example of this is the Fraternity, Cooperation and Coordination Treaty (FCCT) signed in 1991, that codifies cooperation between Lebanon and Syria in all fields from media policy to defense strategy. Another is the Syrian-Lebanese Higher Council, established in 1991 under the FCCT, whose purpose is to “set up the general policy of coordination and cooperation between the two states.”

Their validity and legitimacy could be questioned once embassies are formally up and running between Syria and Lebanon. Or, on the contrary, they could prevail, stripping the embassies of all meaning. Although Nasri Khoury, secretary general of the Syrian Lebanese Higher Council, declared that “the FCCT and the agreements it produced are established truths,” Syrian President Bashar al-Assad declared that “Syria is ready to annul the Higher Council if the Lebanese demand it.”

While March 14 may well demand just that, these agreements are not only binding at a political level, they also have a vast economic dimension, and give Syria a strong hold over Lebanon. One example is the sharing of the Assi river waters, giving a maximum 80 million cubic meters (MCM) to Lebanon out of its total of 400 MCM. Depending on who leads Lebanon, agreements on trade, customs, and telecoms between the two countries will be tackled or left alone.

Maybe more importantly, other decisive aspects of these relations lie in crucial issues that are still left pending: what position will the new parliamentary majority adopt regarding the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), established by the UN to try the killers of Hariri? The Lebanese Parliament hasn’t yet ratified the Memorandum of Understanding that will define the capacity of the STL, and the opposition is still reviewing the power it would give the international community over Lebanese institutions and indicted individuals. If anything, March 8 will continue to pugnaciously oppose the legitimacy of the STL.

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