The Great Divide
By Ian Munroe • Aug 3rd, 2009Over the past few months, the group has carried out headline-grabbing attacks on foreign tourists. In May, its leader, Naser Abdel Karim al-Wahishi, broadcast a message stating that he supports the country’s southern separatists, and demanding that Yemenis join forces to topple the government in Sana’a.
New relations. Next door, GCC countries worry that Yemen’s converging problems will bleed across its borders. “They’re very concerned,” says Nicole Stracke, a researcher in the Security and Terrorism Department at the Gulf Research Center, a Dubai-based think tank. “The problem in Yemen is the government basically fights three conflicts - the south, the north and terrorism - and the resources they have are limited,” she adds. “Now with the oil price going down and the recession, their resources are going to be even more stretched.”
Yemen’s resource gap means President Saleh, who has governed the country since 1978, is unable to crack down on many of the criminals who use the country’s ungoverned areas for nefarious ends. Yet al-Qaeda’s local leadership has not just threatened the government in Sana’a, but Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states. “Yemen’s lack of capacity makes it the problem of the next country down the road. In this case, the GCC,” Boucek says. “The concern is, ‘
how do we absorb what’s happening there?’”
One way is by throwing money at Yemen’s problems. At a donors’ conference held three years ago in London, the Gulf states pledged $2.5 billion to help bolster Saleh’s government (with Saudi Arabia making the largest donation promise by far). But Sana’a has only received a $12 million of the promised cash, according to the World Bank, mainly because of rampant corruption. Yemen ranked 141 out of 180 countries on Transparency International’s latest corruption index. So once the money leaves donors’ hands there are no guarantees as to how it will actually be spent.
Regional integration is another approach. But ties between the Gulf countries and their south-Arabian cousin haven’t always been strong. In the case of Saudi Arabia, for example, “there is a history of complicated relations” with Yemen, says Letta Tayler, a researcher on terrorism and counterterrorism with Human Rights Watch. “We hope that doesn’t block genuine efforts at cooperation on what is clearly a regional problem and needs regional solutions.”
Relations seem to be improving though. In August 2008, Qatar helped broker a peace deal between Sana’a and Yemen’s restive northern Shi’a Zaidi sect. When a local terrorist group attacked the US embassy in Sana’a last September, killing 17 people, Saudi King Abdullah invited Yemen’s president to Mecca and reportedly promised him support to combat al-Qaeda-linked groups. More recently, Saudi leaders have said they’re with Sana’a “all the way,” and “without reservation.” In May, Oman also revoked the citizenship of a former Yemeni leader for supporting recent protests and calling for an independent southern state.
