In this context, the release on Apr. 29 of the four top security and intelligence generals Mustafa Hamdan, Jamil Sayyed, Ali Hajj and Raymond Azar, is an earth-shattering development.

The four had been arrested in 2005 in connection with former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s murder, and at the recommendation of the UN’s International Independent Investigation Commission (IIIC) they had been jailed for three years and seven months without being charged.

By mid-April, Lebanese judge Sakr Sakr had already lifted arrest warrants against the four, but had ordered they remain in jail pending a decision on their fate by the Hague-based Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), which had been handed authority on the case by Lebanon in early April. This decision by pre-trial judge Daniel Fransen at the recommendation of prosecutor Daniel Bellemare, came two weeks later with immediate effect, sparking much media and public fanfare. 

Although, as Bellemare wrote in his submission to Fransen, they could still be indicted later on if evidence implicated them, the pretrial judge declared that at this stage, the generals “cannot be considered as either suspects or accused persons. … The evidence collected thus far is not sufficiently credible to maintain the detention,” said Fransen. 

Since then, the four - who always claimed their innocence - have been hailed as heroes.

The night of the generals’ release, Hezbollah released a statement welcoming Fransen’s decision, after the “arbitrary detention imposed by the [majority] and which took place by politicizing the judicial system.” The apparatchik described the generals’ arrest as a “charade and a big scandal.” More importantly, Hezbollah said that this ” important event” would allow for a “decisive revision of the nation.”

Upon his release, Sayyed - who rumors say could be asked to step up as a minister if the opposition were to win the polls - denounced a “conspiracy.”

To contain the wave of condemnation and prove its own credibility, the Higher Judicial Council expressed “its willingness to bear its responsibility in facing any deficiency committed during judicial practices.”

But as election day looms closer, this release may have a serious impact on how the Lebanese will vote. “Our detention was politically motivated and was exploited for four years by the majority [the pro-Western ruling parliamentary coalition]. So it is perfectly normal that the tables are turned now,” said Sayyed. No wonder political reconciliation is at a nadir.

For his part, majority leader Hariri declared that this decision was “a step toward achieving justice” and that “this is a response to those who said that the tribunal was politicized,” referring to accusations from the opposition that the STL was a pawn in the hands of the United States.

Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said that the release of the four generals scored a point for the majority and not the opposition, because the opposition “has been marketing for years that the tribunal was politicized.”

However, without the STL as a central point of its electoral platform, and faced with virulent accusations of having misled the Lebanese public, the majority coalition now more than ever needs arguments to rally swing voters and reassure its own troops. Hezbollah, on the other hand, which repeatedly asked for the release of the generals, can further mobilize its constituencies because of this victory.

Amid electoral fever, few realize the STL is back to square one, without suspects or any prospect of identifying any. It seems justice for the victims will not take place anytime soon.             

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