But sour gas extraction and processing is more technically challenging, and it’s unclear when ConocoPhillips, the company heading up development, will be able to begin production. Saudi Arabia is also searching for additional gas deposits offshore, which are more expensive to exploit. But recent exploration results there have been less than encouraging.

“The problem is not a theoretical one - it’s very much a real concern,” Kiwan says. “Last year, Alcoa was going to move forward with a project but they decided not to because there wasn’t enough available gas. Dubai and Bahrain have been having black outs and brown outs.”

If Gulf states (aside from gas-rich Qatar) can’t secure enough industrial energy supplies, it may hamper efforts to draw in manufacturers, slowing the growth of places like Abu Dhabi’s new polymers park. “The supply-demand balance remains tight,” Kiwan cautions. “If they can’t bring new supplies on past 2011-2012, things are going to become a lot tighter.”

“Governments have started to realize the problem, but they have to pit economic growth and nation-building versus energy efficiency. And in the short term, I think economic growth trumps all.”            

 

 

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