Retreating investment is clearly bad news for stricken African states. But it may also pave the way for companies that still have access to funds, to step in and expand there. From agriculture to tourism, sub-Saharan Africa is home to a host of virtually untapped markets, which cash-rich GCC firms are well positioned to try and corner. Gulf telecoms, for example, are facing growing competition and saturated markets at home. To the south, however, the industry is growing faster than anywhere in the world, making it an ideal place for them to focus on.

“Africa has the land and the primary resources, while the Gulf states have the capacity to invest in infrastructure, which will benefit the entire continent,” Bos says. “So I think they will continue to seek each other out for a while.”

The downside. The world’s second-largest continent receives only a dismal 1 percent of global foreign direct investment, and unfortunately there are legitimate reasons that many companies choose to steer clear. Corruption, political instability and lacking infrastructure can make it challenging to operate there, especially on a large scale. Deep pockets or not, GCC firms are still vulnerable to local problems.

Nigeria is one example, where Dubai World hopes to become a major player in the country’s expansive oil patch. Interfaith violence there has been a lasting problem, and trade in stolen oil continues to feed corruption.

On the East coast, Djibouti may be the best example of new sub-Saharan investments from the Gulf, with several Dubai-based companies working to transform the country into a major transport hub. But pirates in neighboring Somalia continue to hamper trade through the Red Sea, prompting some shipping firms to divert their vessels around the tip of South Africa. Last year, Djibouti also had to fend off a potential invasion from its irksome northern neighbor, Eritrea, by sending hundreds of soldiers to stand guard along their shared border.

The risks haven’t disappeared. But according to international consultancy Oxford Analytica, the Gulf’s multinationals have proven they’re willing to take chances and operate in environments that many Western firms avoid. Originating from the Middle East, they’re accustomed to working with unwieldy bureaucracies. And the state-owned variety, such as Dubai World, are better equipped to recover from potential missteps because of the large capital reserves underpinning them.

 Those capital reserves aren’t as ex-tensive as they were six months ago thanks to lower oil prices and poorly performing sovereign wealth funds. But the recession has also hobbled multinationals in Europe and North America, from which most of Africa’s foreign investment still emanates.

“Outside of China and the Gulf, and a couple of really well capitalized funds, there just isn’t the liquidity to do what are perceived as risky ventures in Africa,” says Philippe de Pontet, Africa analyst at political consulting firm Eurasia Group. “Now a lot of the Gulf-based companies are in a stronger position relative to their competitors in Africa.”

Time will tell whether GCC firms seize that advantage. But in the bigger picture, these are still fairly early days for them south of the Sahara. “Their re-lationship remains at the experimental level,” Bos says. “Although we see more and more important deals taking place, relatively speaking it’s still not a lot. Obstacles remain – the unstable business environment, the lack of infrastructure and logistics – which forces the Gulf to be cautious.”

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