But most experts say it’s too early to make such a prediction. “I could imagine that Middle East players will selectively look at Western assets that become available, in order to improve access to these markets or to gain access to proprietary technology,” says Florian Budde, a director and leader of the European chemical practice at McKinsey & Company in Frankfurt. “We still need to see whether it will be a buying spree, given the number of assets that are available.”

Give it time, says John Sfakianakis, chief economist at SABB, a Saudi bank. “I think [foreign acquisitions] would make a lot of sense from a strategic viewpoint,” he says. “We’re still facing some serious headwinds due to the global economic crisis and the recession, but it does make sense. There are now more opportunities, and even more will come out of the global recession, which will make it quite sensible for companies to be looking outside the region.”

Of course, making the most of those opportunities will depend on the financial situation of the firm. “These companies are facing similar problems to their counterparts in the West,” says Nigel Davis, director of insight at ICIS, an chemical industry intelligence provider in London. “It’s incredibly difficult to obtain funding for acquisitions in the current environment. Having said that, one might expect some of the sovereign wealth funds to make a move.”

Local projects may find it difficult attracting international partners. Many are wondering whether the $17 billion Ras Tanura petrochemicals complex in Saudi Arabia, a joint venture between Dow and Saudi Aramco, will go through now that Dow’s share price has fallen so much that its market capitalization of less than $6 billion is actually below its expected commitment to Ras Tanura.

The current Dow crisis began with truculent opposition parliamentarians in Kuwait, who forced the government to pull out of a $17.4 billion joint venture between state-owned Petrochemical Industries Company and Dow late last year. Now that Dow has slashed its cherished dividend, many American investors are unwillingly paying for it instead. And the deal interruption may soon ricochet back to the Gulf if Dow’s Ras Tanura project is cancelled.

From Kuwait to Philadelphia, it’s a chain of events that shows the global nature of the business and the massive, precarious cash flows involved. It also suggests that Gulf firms  may soon find themselves alone on the stage, as others scale back. With state-owned Gulf giants about to launch some of the world’s biggest petrochemical projects, the West’s contribution to making ever more plastic clutter may be no longer needed. 

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