Refugees are a sensitive issue for Jordan, which absorbed hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in 1948, then in 1967, and again in 1990. Clashes have erupted before, most notably with Palestinians in 1970. Today, the country has been scrambling to keep an eye on its refugee communities, fearing that insurgents may have infiltrated the country.

Jordan’s large refugee population poses a challenge for local police and intelligence services, who try to monitor and deal with any potential threats. That costs money. But Fanek doesn’t expect such security concerns to become a serious long-term problem: “The Iraqis’ return is possible as soon as security is restored,” he says. “Their presence is temporary in Jordan.”

The national economy is expected to grow 6 percent for the next four years, and the number of Iraqi refugees who stay in the country will help determine whether Jordan meets that expectation or not. The forecast in government circles is that the longer Iraqis stay in Jordan, the more they will increase public capital expenditure, with the bulk going towards water, energy, health and education. According to the Interior Ministry, Iraqi nationals in the Kingdom are costing the government $1 billion a year.

Part of that bill is spent on water, a resource that will become even more scarce in coming years. According to USAID, without dramatic changes in water management and public awareness about the need for conservation, water shortages will become a huge problem by 2020.

Regardless of the mixed effect of the country’s newest refugee population, the current outlook in Jordan is that the Iraq’s dispossessed will heap more pressure on an already-stretched economy. Whether that will happen, however, remains to be seen.

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