More importantly, the Norwegian experts say it usually takes around a decade to sort out technicalities and commercial drilling to take place. It took the company 18 years of research and 28 drills to find exploitable deposits in the Barents sea. Besides, considering the depth at which drilling will likely occur  – as much as 1,500 meters – Tabourian stressed that there are no more than a dozen firms in the world with the necessary experience. Most of the purported gas deposits could be small and scattered, which would make production difficult and perhaps not cost-effective, considering that gas usually requires liquefaction (turning the gas into its liquid form) and is more expensive to transport than oil.

And the biggest obstacle may be regional. The government still hasn’t ratified a treaty it signed with Cyprus in January 2007 to delineate each country’s territorial waters, which would facilitate future oil and gas exploration. Turkish authorities immediately warned Lebanon  against such deals, claiming that Turkey and Turkish Cypriots also had rights in that regard.

Turkey’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement declaring that “Turkey [has] to protect its rights and interests in the eastern Mediterranean and will not allow attempts to erode them.” But in February 2007, Cyprus still launched a tender to allocate exploration in 11 areas.This sparked tremendous interest among the oil firms but prompted Turkey to warn oil firms that Ankara would consider any contracts signed with the Greek Cypriot government illegal. Tensions have been running particularly high between the two countries ever since. And in November, the Turkish navy repeatedly drove away exploration vessels – including a Norwegian one – from the Cypriot coast.

Lebanon has been carefully waiting for the outcome of this dispute before clarifying its position, hoping to avoid upsetting any of the feuding countries. But it may well be called on to make a decision and choose a side if it wants to go on with its exploration plans. Otherwise, the new petroleum law may become another pointless regulation.    

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