The debt-ridden Lebanese economy could also benefit from increased confidence and more job opportunities, that is, as long as oil doesn’t become another source of political dispute or administrative fraud.

Aware of such risks, Tabourian has already come up with a plan: after the law is approved, a state-controlled company will be established with help from Norwegian experts. It will grant several exploration licenses to international oil companies, each of which will be allocated a different area to develop. Incapable of financing the exploration itself, and with each drill estimated to cost $150 to $300 million, the government says contracted firms will bear the brunt of such expenses in exchange for a larger share of oil-generated revenues. Each firm will be allotted a specific number of drills.

The pending oil law is also expected to define how oil revenues will be shared. Tabourian says all oil revenues will go in to a sovereign financial fund that will be used to pay off the country’s public debt. Tabourian even pledges that any potential oil money wouldn’t be used for anything else until that debt is repaid. Only then would the fund be used for other expenses, to ensure that “future generations will benefit from the oil manna.”

Not that easy.

But let’s not put the cart before the horse. Tabourian warns that drilling wouldn’t start soon. There’s little chance the petroleum law will be ap-proved before the parliamentary elections planned in May 2009. And Lebanon’s history has shown that a change of ministry personnel can lead to a complete change of policy, as happened in 2004.

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