The UAE’s 3.2 million foreign workers are considered a security threat as well as an economic input. Less than a fifth of residents are UAE nationals, and many of them worry that the tide of foreigners could wash away their sense of national identity. Plus, weeding out bad apples from heaps of immigration applications is a daunting task.

As Anwar Gargash, the UAE’s minister of state and foreign affairs, told the United Nations panel reviewing his country’s human rights record in December: “the unique challenge of demographics in our country remains a key issue, not only in terms of national identity but also in terms of our national security. Our policies must always take this into account.”

To deal with that security challenge, labor policy has maximized government and employer control over the workforce. Foreign employees are anchored to their company through the Kafala (sponsorship) system. And job mobility is restricted to the point that expatriates sometimes flee the emirates to get their work visa cancelled, only to return for a new position at another firm. Relaxing those rules is a politically charged issue. But as the emirate’s labor pool contracts, it will likely become a pressing one.

Loosening labor laws for the upper end of the job market would also fit with Dubai’s long-term goals. By 2015, the emirate wants to boost the proportion of skilled workers from 20 to 25 percent of its labor pool, so that it can build up local knowledge-intensive industries. According to Dyer, that may mean enhancing the labor rights of well-educated expatriates.

“They need to find a way to encourage people to stay here and help build the skills side of the equation,” he says. “Giving skilled workers more flexibility … encouraging them to view Dubai or the GCC in general as a place to stay and build their career, as opposed to a temporary place to work for a couple years.”

“The sense among policymakers [is] that these are the people with skills they’ll need to build a knowledge economy,” he continues. “They realize they’re far too dependent on these unskilled workers, simple industry and construction, simple labor inputs. They’re trying to move towards building up that skilled services sector.”

As part of that strategy, the Dubai government also plans to whittle down the number of unskilled laborers in the emirate from 75 to 70 percent of the workforce by 2015. And unskilled laborers may very well be coming to the UAE in smaller numbers soon – but not for the reasons the government had hoped.

In the meantime, as the local real estate industry loses traction, rights groups are wondering what will happen to the migrant laborers who are vanishing from Dubai’s roads along with their white Tata buses. “Nothing will be put in place to help unskilled workers cope with the situation,” says Nicholas McGeeehan, founder of UAE workers’ rights group Mafiwasta. “A lot of companies won’t provide transport home and you’ll be left with a huge problem of migrant workers stuck in the country and classified as illegal.”   

That could be a nightmare scenario for the image-conscious emirate, as well as for those who would find themselves stranded. Whether it comes to pass or not, workers here look destined for tougher times – regardless of the size of their salary. And for the moment, the promise of a better life from the Gulf’s renowned city of opportunity is sounding a little less certain. 

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