Washington has avoided authorizing Israel to fly over Iraqi air space, to reach Iran, by implying that Baghdad must make that decision on its own. This amounts to strong American disapproval. Considering that Tzipi Livni is in the arduous process trying to keep together a fragile coalition, an Israeli attack seems quite unlikely. However, if Livni fails to form the coalition, elections will take place in November and if Netanyahu is the winner, the risk of a serious altercation with Iran will increase in 2009.
As a result of all this, there seems to be a consensus on diplomacy (tinged with resignation) among the six powers negotiating with Iran. It’s high time that some thought be given to how Iran can be made to strike a deal with the West through diplomacy. Is it possible in view of past attempts? Both the problem and its solution lie in Iran’s overly complex process of formulating foreign policy. Unfortunately, if engaging Iran ever happens, it won’t be as straightforward as many expect.
Many factors influence how Iran formulates its foreign policy. Today, the Iranian presidency and foreign ministry are the main bodies that determine the country’s foreign-policy direction. But important prerogatives lie with the Supreme National Security Council, the key body overseeing defense policy including nuclear options. This council is headed by the president, but he doesn’t have supreme authority. To be valid, its decisions must be confirmed by Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader. So when it comes to matters of defense it’s fair to say that the Supreme Leader is really in charge, not the president.

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