Almost on reflex, commentators compare any contemporary subsidy tinkering, and the resultant civil unrest, with the 1977 incident. But the differences between then and now are far more interesting:

First, consider the policies themselves. Courting patronage from the United States at the time, Sadat took the advice of the International Monetary Fund at face value, and attempted to stop all subsidies, cold turkey. Such a radical change would be unthinkable now. While officials may dream of the day when they can cut the EGP 70 billion ($13.1 billion) annual subsidy package out of the national budget, political realities mean that caution and incremental change are the order of the day.

Now look at the government res-ponses. In both cases, the measures were rescinded following a public outcry, but the tactics differ significantly. Since Sadat called in the military to gun down protesters, the Egyptian government has developed an array of ruthless – but probably less lethal – methods of dispersing crowds and shutting down protest movements, a trend that political scientist Steven Heydemann calls “authoritarian upgrading.”

Today, protest leaders are arrested before the fact, and phalanxes of riot police and plainclothes thugs greet demonstrators. There’s a vibrant opposition online, but a movement that recently attracted tens of thousands on

Facebook has been unable to turn virtual support into physical action.

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